A Discussion of China's Population Control Policy
and Issues
2009-08-R18
(Copyrighted 2009 by Don M. Tow)
China
is well known as the most populous country in the world and a country where
the government has adopted a one-child policy.
The one-child policy is actually not a one-size
fits all policy.
Furthermore, formulating a good population
control policy for China
is extremely complex, and there are serious consequences for whatever policy
adopted.
This article provides some background information on
this important issue, and discusses China’s
current population control policy, its resultant issues, and potential
resolutions.
Some Basic Population
Statistics during the First Two Decades of the PRC
The population of
China
was about 450 million in 1949 (although it is not clear how accurate is this
number), and over 1.3 billion today, or tripling in the last 60 years.
However, the growth rate has not been constant
over that period.
Due to a weak Chinese government, imperialism,
war, and turmoil in
China
during the second half of the 19th
century and the first half of the 20th
century,
China’s
population was pretty stagnant during that period.
However, things started to change significantly
after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China
(PRC) in 1949.
When the first census was taken in modern
China
in 1953, its population was already 583 million.
This rapid increase of almost 30% in four years
(although there is some uncertainty on the population of China
in 1949) was due to the much lower death rate together with the much higher
birth rate after the end of WWII and China’s
civil war.
In the 1964 census, the population was 695
million, or an increase of almost 20% over the previous 11 years.
This was still a large increase, however
partially due to the tragic famine of the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1961,
this increase was no where as much as the increase during the first few
years of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
During the next five years 1964-1969, there was
another large increase to about 800 million, or about another 15% increase.
Traditional
Factors Driving China’s
Population Growth
There were several reasons in traditional Chinese culture resulting in a
large number of children.
Confucianism believed that many children mean
much happiness, and early children means early happiness.
Farmers in rural areas needed more hands to
work the fields.
Keep in mind that even as late as 30 years ago,
about 80% of Chinese lived in the rural areas.
In traditional Chinese culture, older parents
lived with their adult sons and the sons take care of the older parents,
while daughters moved away to live with their husbands’ families.
This meant that the Chinese wanted more sons
(and therefore also more children) as insurance for support when they got
old.
This was especially important in rural
China
where there was no pension and no social welfare system to support the older
retired farmers, and this is essentially still the case in rural China
today.
In
addition, Chairman Mao Zedong was in power until near his death in 1976, and
Mao not only did not believe in birth control, he encouraged and urged the
Chinese people to have lots of children.
When
Mao died in September 1976, the population of
China
was about 930 million, which means that the population of China
had doubled during the 27 years of 1949-1976.
This was one of many mistakes made by Mao.
China’s
Population Control Policy
The above factors led to a very rapid increase in China’s
population during the first quarter century of the PRC.
This, however, does not mean that there was no
population policy or campaign whatsoever to limit population growth in
China
during that period.
As a matter of fact, population policies and
campaigns had been ongoing in
China
since the 1950s.
Without these policies and campaigns, the
population of China
would have increased even faster during that period, as evident by the fact
that the rate of population growth was already slowing during the latter
part of that period.
Nevertheless, the pace of population growth was still very large, and if
that rapid pace of increase would continue for the next quarter century or
more, China’s
population would be so large that it would be impossible to provide enough
food and other necessities for everyone, and definitely would not allow the
country to raise China’s
standard of living significantly.
This would lead to massive economic, social,
and political problems.
Thus starting in the early 1970s even while Mao was still alive, China
was already pushing for fewer children on a voluntary basis.
In 1976, around the time of Mao’s death, the
cornerstone of
China’s
birth control program was put into effect:
the “Later, Longer, Fewer” policy.
This policy encourages couples to get married
later, wait longer to have children, and have fewer children.
In 1979, this policy got more specific and more
stringent and became the “one-child policy” (or
计划生育政策 in
Chinese, which means the “policy of birth planning”).
Basically it restricts married couples to have
only one child, although allowing many exemptions as discussed next.
Many exemptions were provided, or later added.
There are also a lot of provincial or regional
variations, as implementation and enforcement are done at the provincial or
regional levels. Here are several examples of exemptions:
-
In
accordance with the PRC’s affirmative action policies towards ethnic
minorities, all non-Han ethnic groups are subjected to different rules
and are usually allowed to have two children in urban areas, and three
or four in rural areas.
-
Han Chinese living in
rural areas are also often permitted to have two children, or if the
first child is a girl, then a second child is permitted.
-
“Only child” parents are
permitted to have two children to account for the fact that such parents
do not have siblings to help out or help to support them when they get
old.
-
A second child is
permitted under cases of “practical difficulties,” e.g., when the father
is a disabled serviceman.
-
If the first child is
severely disabled or has deceased, then a second child is permitted.
-
Following the 2008
Sichuan
earthquake, in Sichuan
a second child is permitted if the first child was lost in the
earthquake.
-
Taking all the
exemptions into account, China
estimates that only approximately 36% of China’s
population is currently subject to the one-child restriction.
There are economic dis-incentives for violating the “policy of birth
planning.”
These dis-incentives include paying a one-time
fine, needing to pay tuition for the second child to attend schools, denying
health and other social welfare benefits for the second child.
The
amounts of the dis-incentives are decided by the appropriate provincial or
regional authority.
Besides economic dis-incentives, coerced or
forced abortions or sterilizations may also be imposed, with also variations
depending on the province or region.
It is the coerced or forced abortions or
sterilizations that have caused a lot of objections and controversies
regarding human rights both within and outside of China.
Since the introduction of the one-child policy, the fertility rate in
China
has fallen from about three births per woman in 1980 to below 1.8 births in
2008.
Note that the 1980 fertility rate of 3 was already
reduced sharply from almost 6 births per woman in 1970 and as high as 7.5
births per woman around 1963.
Note that the current Chinese fertility rate of
below 1.8 is lower than the fertility rate of 2.05 in the
U.S.,
1.89 in France,
or 1.82 in the
United Kingdom.
Factors to Consider and
Potential Problems
Formulating a good population control policy for China
is extremely complex, and need to factor in many considerations.
These include:
-
Are there too many
mouths to feed in relation to the productivity and wealth of the
country?
-
Will a large population
lead to excessive unemployment?
-
Are there or will
there be enough productive workers to support industrialization and
modernization of
China
if we curb the population growth too much?
-
How seriously will the
environment be affected by the large population and industrialization
and modernization?
-
Are there or will there
be too many older and retired people who rely on pensions or government
social welfare programs to sustain their livelihood?
-
Are there or will there
be enough productive workers to generate enough income for the
government to support the older and retired people?
-
Can some sort of
pension or social welfare program be provided to support the people
living in the rural areas, with the rural population still representing
about 50% of China’s
population?
-
How to provide
variations and flexibility that can accommodate various differences,
such as differences with respect to racial minorities?
-
How to respect
individuals’ human rights and people’s desires to make their own
decisions?
-
What kinds of economic
dis-incentives should be offered to persuade people to follow the
population control policy without using more drastic measures such as
coerced or forced abortions or sterilizations?
-
How should we look
upon the issue of population quality?
By allowing rural farmers to have more
children than the urban residents with higher education and
technological skills, are we lowering the overall population quality and
make the country less competitive in the modern world of globalization?
Or how do we close the gap in educational
opportunities between the rural and urban areas?
-
How can we end up with
approximately equal numbers of boys and girls?
Note that some of the above considerations are on opposite ends of a
spectrum.
For example, the second and third bullets are opposite
end results depending on the population control policy adopted.
Having the one-child policy in existence for 30 years has definitely slowed
down the rate of population growth in
China.
During the last 30 years since the adoption of
the one-child policy, China’s population has only grown from approximately
975 millions in 1979 to approximately today’s 1330 millions, or an increase
of approximately 36%, as compared to an increase of approximately 100%
during the first 27 years of the PRC.
Although controlling
China’s
huge population growth is a major achievement, the one-child policy has
brought about or will bring about several important problems.
Among the more obvious ones are:
-
With improved economy and healthcare,
China
during the first 31 years of the PRC has already almost doubled the life
span of its citizens from 35 years in 1949 to 68 years in 1980.
With people living longer and with fewer
births due to the one-child policy, the percentage of older people is
increasing rapidly.
The percentage of people in
China
who are over 65 was 7% in 2004, and is projected to increase to 14% in
27 years in 2031.
Although increasing the average age of the
population is normal as a country undergoes industrialization and
modernization due to increased efficiency and the need for fewer workers
per task, the rate of increase is occurring much faster in China.
For example, such an increase would have
taken many European countries 85-115 years.[1]
China
is the first nation to have to cope with a population that is getting
older before it becomes rich.
The elderly population is expected to
mushroom before the economy and society have the capability to deal with
the problem.
An ever increasingly aged population would result in an increasingly larger
financial burden on the state to provide pension and social welfare benefits
to their senior citizens, while at the same time the number of productive
workers is not increasing correspondingly due to the dropping birth rate.
This means that the problem will get worse and
worse.
As an illustration, according to
China’s
2000 census, there were 69 million aged 0-4 years old, which is only half of
the number aged 10-14 years old.
-
As
China
becomes more industrialized and modernized and becomes an even more
important economic player in the globalized world, it will need more and
more educated and highly skilled workers and managers to fuel its
economic engine.
As
China
expands economically and if its birth rate remains low,
China
may not have a large enough workforce.
If this causes the economy to stagnate and
reduces the income of the productive workforce, then it will compound
the just-discussed problem of an aging population because their
financial support comes at least partially from the income of the
productive workforce.
-
For the reasons that we discussed earlier in this
article with respect to
China’s
traditional customs, the Chinese favor baby boys over baby girls.
This leads to a larger number of boys over
girls, due to various actions, such as giving up a girl for adoption,
abortion, or even infanticide.
The ratio at birth of boys to girls in
China
was 108.5 in 1982, 110.9 in 1987, 115.6 in 1995, and 116.9 in 2000.
This is already resulting in difficulty for
young men to find marriage partners, and could lead to various social
problems, including psychological problems, sex crimes, as well as other
crimes such as run-away brides.[2]
These social problems could then lead to
economic and political problems.
-
Because of the coerced and forced abortions and
sterilizations that are often used, the one-child policy has generated a
lot of criticisms both from within
China
and outside of
China.
This contributes to social and political
unrest among the Chinese citizens, and generates international
criticisms from outside of
China
and therefore could weaken
China’s
reputation and political influence.
This policy could also lead to bribes,
another undesirable result.
-
Many people, although not all, believe that a
single child has a higher probability of resulting in a more spoiled and
self-centered child.
Would this give rise to more social
problems as these children become adults?
Potential Resolutions
The above problems associated with
China’s
one-child policy are so complex that I of course do not claim to be able to
offer a solution that can solve all these problems.
I do want to offer several general guidelines
that could serve as the foundation on which a solution could possibly be
built.
-
A large-scale and long-term educational campaign
that emphasizes the equality of boys and girls, including that
daughters, and not just sons, can also take care of and support older
parents.
Such an educational campaign is going to take many decades to
accomplish, because of the long-standing Chinese tradition favoring boys
over girls. So one must have
faith and patience to carry out this campaign.
-
The current retirement age in
China
is 60 for men and 55 for women (and 50 for lower-level women workers).
The reason for such a low retirement age is
to open more jobs and keep the unemployment rate from reaching high
level.
As China’s economy continues to expand and improve
and with a low birth rate for several decades, increasing the retirement
age may be workable in the foreseeable future, and can help to solve
several problems:
(1) provide a larger productive workforce
to fuel the expanding economic engine,
(2) increase the time where the workforce can save and contribute to
their pensions, and (3) reduce the time that older people need to rely
on their personal savings, pension, and social welfare programs to
sustain themselves. Therefore, it
may be time to increase the retirement age to 65, for both men and women
to be consistent with achieving male-female equality discussed in the
previous paragraph.
-
Concrete steps must be taken to reduce the
reliance of older parents on the financial support from their grown
children.
That means that personal savings, pensions, and
government social welfare programs must be more or less sufficient to
sustain retirees.
China’s
current pension system may already be in the red, and it may be
difficult economically to increase the pension in any significant way
without making major changes. Nevertheless, something must be done in
this area, especially in providing
some sort of pension or social welfare programs for the rural
population, perhaps by redistributing some of the income that goes to
the emerging class of very wealthy people.
In addition, perhaps a system that encourages personal savings,
something like the 401K plan, can be implemented as China’s economy
continues to expand, improve, and the average personal income rises.
Depending on the Chinese tax policy, incentives might need to be
introduced to encourage people to participate in a 401K-like plan.
Achieving more or less financial
independence from grown children will be a necessary ingredient to
control China’s population growth, although
it is an extremely difficult and expensive task to achieve.
It is especially difficult and expensive to achieve in the rural
areas (where currently about 50% of the Chinese population reside), but
it is where this is needed the most.
This objective will also take many decades to achieve, and relies
on the one hand a continuing expanding Chinese economy, and on the other
hand on reducing the gap between the very rich and the very poor.
-
The current fertility rate of under 1.8 and the
one-child policy should not be sustained.
Instead, one should target the fertility
rate to be around 2.0 or even slightly above 2.0 to avoid a rapidly
aging population and other undesirable consequences of the one-child
policy.
The target should be two children per family.
-
Rely on education and economic dis-incentives, and
not coercion and forced abortions and sterilizations, to keep couples
from having more than two children.
One may question whether such a program can
be successful without coercion and forced abortions and sterilizations.
Actually there is already historical data
that indicates that it could be successful.
From 1970 to 1979 before the one-child
policy was adopted and before coercion and forced abortions and
sterilizations, the total fertility rate had already fallen from 5.9 to
2.9, and it probably would have continued to fall (although at a
slightly lower rate) under the voluntary “Later, Longer, and Fewer”
policy.
Summary
In order for China, being the most populous
country in the world, to develop into a rich, industrialized and modernized
country, it is crucial that it adopts a good population control policy that
can slow down the rapid growth of its population.
However, it is not easy to formulate and
implement a good policy, because a non-ideal policy could easily give rise
to a plethora of undesirable problems.
Although China’s one-child policy has achieved
the objective of controlling rapid population growth, it has given rise to
several undesirable problems, such as a rapidly aging population, an excess
of boys over girls, the inability of the productive workforce to support the
large older population, and whether there is enough productive workforce to
sustain a growing world-class economy.
We offer several general guidelines that could serve as the foundation on
which a solution could possibly be built.
Note that a good solution will require many decades of commitment to
achieve, and will rely crucially on a continuing healthy and growing Chinese
economy.
[1] See Kevin Kinsella, “Demographic
Dimensions of Global Aging,”
Journal of Family Issues 21, no. 5 (Jul. 2000); 541-58.
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