{"id":5486,"date":"2018-12-18T01:00:43","date_gmt":"2018-12-18T06:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/?p=5486"},"modified":"2019-01-01T21:44:47","modified_gmt":"2019-01-02T02:44:47","slug":"implications-of-trumps-presidency-for-the-u-s-and-world-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/2018\/12\/implications-of-trumps-presidency-for-the-u-s-and-world-part-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Implications of Trump’s Presidency for the U.S. and the World: Part II"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump has been the President of the U.S. for only less than two years, but the consequences of his presidency for our country and the world could be profound and scary.\u00a0 From the perspective of the environment, harmony with others, economy, American competitiveness, tax cuts and budget deficit\/national debt, world stability\/democracy\/rule of law, his impacts have been grave and significant.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

This article is in two parts.\u00a0 Both parts are posted in this same December 2018 release.\u00a0 Part I<\/a> is posted in the “Political\/Social Commentary” page.\u00a0 Part II is this article posted in the “Other” page.<\/p>\n

The article has six sections:<\/p>\n

I. \u00a0 Environment<\/p>\n

II.\u00a0 Harmony with Others<\/p>\n

III. Economy<\/p>\n

IV. American Competitiveness<\/p>\n

V.\u00a0 Tax Cuts, Budget Deficit and National Debt<\/p>\n

VI. Summary – World Stability\/Democracy\/Rule of Law<\/p>\n

Sections I-III are in Part I<\/a>, and Sections IV-VI are in Part II<\/a>.
\n<\/p>\n

IV. American Competitiveness:\u00a0 <\/strong>American competitiveness relative to the rest of the world is really the crux of the matter.\u00a0 To be the world\u2019s economic leader, a country needs to be at the top in terms of several important categories, such as:<\/p>\n

\n
New ideas and new products<\/li>\n
Efficient production\/manufacturing\/distribution processes<\/li>\n
Educated work force to generate new ideas and produce the products<\/li>\n
Government leaders who can provide a vision and the ability to implement that vision<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Starting with the beginning of the 20th century and continue for several decades after the end of WWII, our country has been the world\u2019s economic leader because we were able to lead, or at least share in the lead, in the above categories.<\/p>\n
Our country has been the most innovative in terms of technological inventions, such as airplane, automobile, telecommunications, transistors, computers, search engines, etc.\u00a0 We have also been among the leaders in developing efficient production\/manufacturing\/distribution processes, such as the assembly line [12], transportation infrastructure like the national network of highways, and online shopping [13].\u00a0 Since the end of WWII, the U.S. greatly expanded its higher education system by establishing many good state colleges and universities in addition to the many well-known established private universities, as well as community colleges, producing a large number of educated work force.\u00a0 It also attracted the top foreign students for colleges or graduate schools, thus infusing the best young talents from the world to our country.\u00a0 This massive education system has produced the large number of scientists, engineers, business professionals, doctors, teachers, as well as many other professions that staff the backbone of our economy.\u00a0 This was a key reason for the U.S. becoming the leading economic power in the world in the second half of the 20th century.\u00a0 Complementing that, we also had competent and dedicated government leaders to provide a vision and the ability to implement that vision on projects such as the Manhattan project, the national transportation infrastructure of highways, airlines, and ports, the space program, and the massive expansion of higher educational systems.<\/p>\n
However, perhaps with success, we have been complacent.\u00a0 Not only that a lot of our manufacturing is now done overseas, the talent that leads to innovations is slowing down significantly.\u00a0 For example, according to a 2011 Population Reference Bureau (PRB) report [14], in 1994 there were 6.2 U.S.-born workers for every foreign-born worker in science and engineering occupations.\u00a0 By 2006 only 12 years later, the ratio was 3.1.\u00a0 Furthermore, this report says that more than 60 percent of foreign-born scientists and engineers in the U.S. in 2009 were from Asia, and nearly one-fourth were from India, with another one-fifth from China, the Philippines, and Taiwan.\u00a0 This shift to dependency on foreign-born talent is so obviously reflected in the percentage of Americans as compared to foreign students who are in our graduate school engineering and science programs.\u00a0 As a matter of fact, the statistics are downright frightening.\u00a0 Here are the data from a 2017 Inside Higher Ed <\/em>report [15]:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Field of Study<\/strong><\/td>\n Percent International<\/strong><\/td>\n Number of Full-Time International Graduate Students in 2015<\/strong><\/td>\n Number of Full-Time U.S. Graduate Students in 2015<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Electrical Engineering<\/td>\n 81%<\/td>\n 32,736<\/td>\n 7,783<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Petroleum Engineering<\/td>\n 81%<\/td>\n 1,258<\/td>\n 302<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Computer Science<\/td>\n 79%<\/td>\n 45,790<\/td>\n 12,539<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industrial Engineering<\/td>\n 75%<\/td>\n 7,676<\/td>\n 2,539<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Statistics<\/td>\n 69%<\/td>\n 4,321<\/td>\n 1,966<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Economics<\/td>\n 63%<\/td>\n 7,770<\/td>\n 4,492<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mechanical Engineering<\/td>\n 62%<\/td>\n 12,676<\/td>\n 7,644<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Civil Engineering<\/td>\n 59%<\/td>\n 9,159<\/td>\n 6,284<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chemical Engineering<\/td>\n 57%<\/td>\n 5,001<\/td>\n 3,834<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pharmaceutical Sciences<\/td>\n 56%<\/td>\n 1,931<\/td>\n 1,502<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Metallurgical\/Materials Engineering<\/td>\n 55%<\/td>\n 3,723<\/td>\n 3,103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Agricultural Engineering<\/td>\n 53%<\/td>\n 726<\/td>\n 654<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Agricultural Economics<\/td>\n 53%<\/td>\n 881<\/td>\n 796<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
For example, the percentages of international graduate students in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in 2015 are respectively 81% and 79%!\u00a0 If we don\u2019t do anything to change this, it will not be long before the U.S. becomes a second-tier player in innovations leading to new ideas and new products.<\/p>\n
We also need to keep in mind that the living standard and cost of living in the U.S. are significantly higher than other countries outside of Europe.\u00a0 This means that the U.S. needs to constantly move up in the product \u201cfood chain\u201d because we cannot compete based on labor cost.\u00a0 That is why the statistics just presented are so frightening because it means that we are moving down the product \u201cfood chain.\u201d<\/p>\n
We agree that more products should be made in the U.S. and more U.S. workers should be hired to produce these products, and the U.S. should be exporting more of our own products and import less of the foreign-made products.\u00a0 However, we also live in a competitive world.\u00a0 We cannot just dictate this to other countries of the world.\u00a0 We have to make it so that it makes economic sense for the other countries, as well as for the U.S., for that to happen.\u00a0 In order to achieve that objective, we have to reverse the trend and produce more of our own innovators, a highly educated work force, more efficient and cost-competitive production, manufacturing, and distribution processes, and government leaders who can provide a vision and the ability to implement that vision.\u00a0 Trump is not providing that vision and leadership, but just issuing orders both domestically and internationally with wishful thinking that things will change for the better.\u00a0 As a matter of fact, Trump has not shown any signs that he even understands the problem.<\/p>\n
V. Tax Cuts, Budget Deficit and National Debt:\u00a0 <\/strong>One of Trump\u2019s signature acts as president was the tax cut act that was passed on December 22, 2017.\u00a0 It generally reduces personal income taxes, at least until 2025, but the reduction will be significantly more for higher income than for lower income.\u00a0 For example, a household earning $1 million or more would get an average tax reduction of $69,660, equivalent to 3.3% income increase, while a household earning $50,000 To $75,000 would get a tax reduction of $870, equivalent to 1.6% income increase. [16]\u00a0 For corporations, the maximum corporate tax rate is reduced from 35% to 21%, the lowest since 1939.\u00a0 Furthermore, some of the individual tax reductions are only temporary and will be removed after 2015, but the corporate tax reductions are permanent.\u00a0 It is clear that the Trump tax cut was aimed to benefit the rich and especially the corporations.<\/p>\n
What are the implications of this December 2017 tax cut?\u00a0 The most obvious and most important consequence is that the federal deficit will increase, and it has.\u00a0 The federal deficits from the year of the last great recession, i.e., fiscal year 2008 (a fiscal year is from the previous October 1 to the year\u2019s September 30) to fiscal year 2018 (October 1, 2017 \u2013 September 30, 2018) are shown in the chart below. [17]<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Deficits in billions<\/b><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
2008<\/td>\n 2009<\/td>\n 2010<\/td>\n 2011<\/td>\n 2012<\/td>\n 2013<\/td>\n 2014<\/td>\n 2015<\/td>\n 2016<\/td>\n 2017<\/td>\n 2018<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$458<\/td>\n $1,413<\/td>\n $1,294<\/td>\n $1,295<\/td>\n $1,087<\/td>\n $679<\/td>\n $485<\/td>\n $438<\/td>\n $585<\/td>\n $665<\/td>\n $779<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
The federal deficit for the just completed fiscal year 2018 was $779 billion, or 3.9% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which is $114 billion more than 2017.\u00a0 To understand the significance of this, it is important to note that the federal deficit was $458 billion for 2008.\u00a0 Because of the great recession around 2008, the federal deficit increased drastically to $1,413 billion in 2009.\u00a0 Then during most of Obama\u2019s presidency, it dropped significantly during the next six years, to $438 billion for 2015 before increasing to $585 billion for 2016.\u00a0 Our government cannot keep on spending more than it receives; we must reduce the federal deficit.\u00a0 However, the federal deficit has increased during Trump\u2019s presidency for 2017 (although he is responsible for only eight months of fiscal year 2017) and for 2018.\u00a0 The federal deficit for fiscal year 2019 is estimated to be $984 billion, an increase of over $200 billion over 2018!<\/p>\n
In Sections III.A and III.B we mentioned that in 2018,\u00a0 job growth was significantly better than what the Congressional Budget Office had projected and the unemployment rate dropped below 4%.\u00a0 These results could be due to more people having more money to spend and corporations having more money to invest as a result of Trump\u2019s tax cuts.\u00a0 However, these positive results most likely will be only temporary because the tax cuts also led to significantly higher budget deficit and dangerous rapidly climbing national debt.\u00a0 The fact that the stock market has cooled down significantly, and ending 2018 with a 6.2% loss, making it the worst year in a decade (as discussed in Section III.C) may already be an indication that people and corporations may not be that optimistic about the longer-term health of our economy.<\/p>\n
Besides the federal deficit, we should also look at the cumulative consequence of federal deficits, i.e., the national debt.\u00a0 The national debts over the last 19 years are shown in the table below [18]<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\n National Debt ($)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2018<\/strong><\/td>\n 21,516,058,183,180.23<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2017<\/strong><\/td>\n 20,244,900,016,053.51<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2016<\/td>\n 19,573,444,713,936.79<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2015<\/td>\n 18,150,617,666,484.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2014<\/td>\n 17,824,071,380,733.82<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2013<\/td>\n 16,738,183,526,697.32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2012<\/td>\n 16,066,241,407,385.89<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2011<\/td>\n 14,790,340,328,557.15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2010<\/strong><\/td>\n 13,561,623,030,891.79<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2009<\/strong><\/td>\n 11,909,829,003,511.75<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2008<\/strong><\/td>\n 10,024,724,896,912.49<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2007<\/td>\n 9,007,653,372,262.48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2006<\/td>\n 8,506,973,899,215.23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2005<\/td>\n 7,932,709,661,723.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2004<\/td>\n 7,379,052,696,330.32<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2003<\/td>\n 6,783,231,062,743.62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2002<\/td>\n 6,228,235,965,597.16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2001<\/td>\n 5,807,463,412,200.06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/30\/2000<\/strong><\/td>\n 5,674,178,209,886.86<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
Note that it has continued to increase during these 19 years, with higher increases shortly after the great recession around 2008.\u00a0 To understand the significance of these national debt numbers, it is useful to look at the ratio of the national debt over GDP (Gross Domestic Product, i.e., the total value of everything produced in the country).\u00a0 This ratio was 55% in 2000, 68% in 2008.\u00a0 It jumped to 83% in 2009 and 90% in 2010 during the great recession around 2008, and continued to increase to 103% in 2017 and 104% in 2018.\u00a0 This means that the amount of money we owe now is more than what the country can produce in a whole year!\u00a0 Politicians like to promise to reduce the budget deficit or the national debt.\u00a0 But Trump went completely over the cliff when in a March 31, 2016 interview with The Washington Post<\/em>, he promised that he will eliminate our country\u2019s national debt (not just the budget deficit) of $19 trillion in eight years! [19]\u00a0 Of course no one believed him, including Trump himself.\u00a0 This is just another example that Trump\u2019s promises are often completely meaningless, and many times he really doesn\u2019t know what he is talking about.<\/p>\n
There are several reasons that it is extremely important to eliminate or reduce the budget deficit, and especially to reduce the national debt. [20] \u00a0 One is that \u201centitlement\u201d programs such as Social Security and Medicare benefits will be at risk if the national debt continues to rise. [21]\u00a0 This is because entitlement programs now already comprise about 14% of the federal spending.\u00a0 Another reason is that other countries will stop buying our debt and the stock and bond markets will lose confidence in our fiscal policy causing prices to plunge.\u00a0 Spending money now and asking our children and grandchildren to pay for it is just wrong and not workable because if we cannot solve the problem now, it will be even less likely for them to solve the problem since the problem will become bigger and bigger as we continue to accumulate debt.\u00a0 We should also keep in mind that they will have to pay for rebuilding many of our outdated national infrastructures and many of them will also have to pay off their large college loans.<\/p>\n
Therefore, we should address this problem as soon as possible.\u00a0 Both parties must be willing to compromise to address this most critical problem.\u00a0 We don\u2019t want to run into an impasse as mentioned partially jokingly by the author of the referenced Forbes<\/em> article [20] \u201cRepublicans haven\u2019t met a defense budget they couldn\u2019t increase and Democrats insist on comparable increases in domestic spending.\u201d\u00a0 It will be impossible to reduce the national debt if the defense budget and entitlement programs are allowed to continue to grow.\u00a0 It is critical that the two sides must be willing to listen to each other and compromise for the long-term good of our country.\u00a0 This is where we must have courageous leaders with a vision and ability to implement that vision.<\/p>\n
VI.. Summary \u2013 World Stability\/Democracy\/Rule of Law:\u00a0 <\/strong>The world has been changing with many formerly colonized or under-developed countries emerging to become competent competitors to the U.S. and other Western powers.\u00a0 If the U.S, wants to remain to be the world\u2019s economic leader, it also must change.\u00a0 It must lead the world in innovations with new ideas, new products, and new processes.\u00a0 This requires a highly educated workforce to create, produce, distribute, and market.\u00a0 It also requires experienced, dedicated, and hard working government leaders who have vision, the ability to mobilize the nation to implement that vision, and the heart for the welfare of the people.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, as far as a highly educated workforce, as we discussed in Section IV \u201cAmerican Competitiveness,\u201d we are actually moving backwards.\u00a0 This is especially important because our cost of living is higher than almost all of our competitors, so we must move up the product \u201cfood chain.\u201d\u00a0 Our national debt has skyrocketed so high that just paying off the interest owed on our national debt will take a significant bite out of our national income.\u00a0 Furthermore, what we now have in power are President Trump and his team who look at the world with their own make-up \u201cfacts,\u201d govern by dictates and strong arms, do not understand the issues (and often do not even try to understand the issues), and cannot work with others whose opinions are not the same as theirs.\u00a0 Our country is so polarized; there is so much mistrust on both sides that it is almost impossible to compromise and move forward in a positive way.\u00a0 In addition, President Trump has alienated long-time allies, and created mistrusts with other world leaders because of his \u201cmy-way-or-the-highway\u201d tactics and his ever-changing positions.<\/p>\n
If we don\u2019t change course quickly, there will be more instability in the world, more tensions, and the probability of war will increase.\u00a0 The world cannot afford more wars, especially a war involving nuclear powers.\u00a0 There is no winner in a nuclear war.\u00a0 Our country prides ourselves as a democracy and a country ruled by law.\u00a0 However, our president acts as though he is above the law, and there is not enough wisdom and courage to take him to task on this critical and fundamental issue that no one is above the law.\u00a0 We should take to heart the conclusion reached by Christopher R. Browning, one of the world\u2019s authorities on the history of the Holocaust and the author of the books The Origins of the Final Solution:\u00a0 The Evolution of Nazi Jewish Policy, September 1939-March 1942 <\/em>(2004) and Ordinary Men:\u00a0 Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland<\/em> (2017).\u00a0 In this latter book, he discussed how ordinary men were transformed psychologically into active participants in the most monstrous crime in human history.\u00a0 With Trump\u2019s intolerance, his high evaluation of himself, and his belief that he is above the law, our country could also be transformed into a dictatorship.<\/p>\n
Since the large majority of evangelical Christians are strong supporters of Trump, and it was this strong support that sent Trump to the White House, it is important that evangelical Christians seriously reassess whether Trump\u2019s behaviors and his policies are consistent with Christian teaching, and if not, then they should not only stop supporting Trump, but should work hard to get him out of office.\u00a0 The future of our country, especially the future of our children and grandchildren, is in the balance.<\/p>\n
\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013<\/p>\n
[12] Contrary to common belief, the automobile assembly line was not invented by Henry Ford, but the originator was another American Ransom Eli Olds, originator of the Oldsmobile, who invented the automobile assembly line in 1901, two years before Henry Ford.<\/p>\n
[13] Although online shopping was invented by Michael Aldrick in United Kingdom in 1979. its boom is normally associated with Amazon.com, founded by the American Jeff Bezos in 1994.<\/p>\n
[14] Mary Kent, \u201cMore U.S. Scientists and Engineers Are Foreign-Born<\/a>,\u201d Population Reference Bureau (PRB)<\/em>, January 11, 2011.<\/p>\n
[15] Elizabeth Redden, \u201cForeign Students and Graduate STEM Enrollment<\/a>\u201c, Inside Higher Ed<\/em>, October 11, 2017.<\/p>\n
[16] Danielle Kurtzleben, \u201cCHARTS:\u00a0 See How Much of GOP Tax Cuts Will Go to the Middle Class<\/a>,\u201d NPR report, December 19, 2017.<\/p>\n
[17] U.S. federal deficit chart<\/a>.<\/p>\n
[18] U.S. national debt<\/a>.<\/p>\n
[19] See, e.g., Manuela Tobias, PolitiFact<\/em>, October 20, 2017<\/a>, or Paul Brandus, MarketWatch<\/em>, February 9, 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n
[20] David Davenport, \u201cFive Reasons Why You Should Worry About the National Debt<\/a>,\u201d Forbes<\/em>, February 28, 2018.<\/p>\n
[21] One may object to referring to Social Security as an entitlement program because the employee and the employer contribute to Social Security.\u00a0 So it is not a handout from the federal government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Donald Trump has been the President of the U.S. for only less than two years, but the consequences of his presidency for our country and the world could be profound and scary.\u00a0 From the perspective of the environment, harmony with others, economy, American competitiveness, tax cuts and budget deficit\/national debt, world stability\/democracy\/rule of law, his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5486"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5486"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5550,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5486\/revisions\/5550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dontow.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}